On the Joint Calibration of Multivariate Seasonal Climate Forecasts from GCMs

On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that 'goodness' should be assessed...

the effect of traffic density on the accident externality from driving the case study of tehran

در این پژوهش به بررسی اثر افزایش ترافیک بر روی تعداد تصادفات پرداخته شده است. به این منظور 30 تقاطع در شهر تهران بطور تصادفی انتخاب گردید و تعداد تصادفات ماهیانه در این تقاطعات در طول سالهای 89-90 از سازمان کنترل ترافیک شهر تهران استخراج گردید و با استفاده از مدل داده های تابلویی و نرم افزار eviews مدل خطی و درجه دوم تخمین زده شد و در نهایت این نتیجه حاصل شد که تقاطعات پر ترافیک تر تعداد تصادفا...

Guidance on Verification of Operational Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Managing Climate Risk with Seasonal Forecasts

Seasonal climate refers to average conditions in the atmosphere and ocean over time scales of the order of three months. When considering risks associated with seasonal climate we are concerned with deviations from normal conditions, or ‘climate anomalies’. Summers that are hotter than usual, extended drought conditions and exceptionally active tropical cyclone seasons are examples of seasonal ...

Intra-seasonal climate prediction - linking Weather and Climate Forecasts

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a tropical atmospheric phenomenon, associated with periods of active convection in the eastern hemisphere tropics.The MJOs temporal scale (22-90 days) coincides with a gap between weather (synoptic forecasts out to 10 days) and climate (seasonal and longer forecasts).Analysis of 35 years of daily rainfall data shows significant modulation of tropical and e...